U.S. Economy to Lead the World in 2015: Schwab

“This is going to be the first time we see that since the major crisis in 2008, where the old central banks around the world were doing the same thing – providing a stimulus, providing liquidity, providing a safety net for the different economies,” Aguilar said. “What we have seen at the start of this year and going into next year is the significant decoupling from what the Federal Reserve is doing in the U.S. given where we are in our economic cycle and the situations in Europe, Japan, and emerging markets.”

What started this year, Aguilar said, was “the fact that the U.S. economy shows signs of strength, while the rest of the world was showing signs of deflation and a lot of weaknesses.” Looking forward, Aguilar said, “we’re going to see more of that [change] in behavior” among central banks around the world.

The only immediate consequence to global decoupling that Aguilar expects is that the dollar will continue to be very strong.

Strong Dollar

Aguilar said the dollar should continue to stay strong in 2015 for several reasons.

He cited the stability of the U.S. economy, the potential for higher interest rates relative to the rest of the world, and most recently lower commodity prices.

“Lower commodity prices, lower oil prices usually translate into potentially stronger currencies, particularly in the U.S.,” he added.

Aguilar sees a strong dollar having an influence on overseas mergers and acquisitions in 2015.

“That means the economic conditions in the U.S. in combination with the stronger dollar in combination with increasing capital expenditures for companies in the U.S. will provide opportunities for potentially buying companies in Europe, buying companies in Asia,” he said. “I think we’re going to see some of that, which will provide a very good support for the U.S. markets.”