Getting Ready for Shoe #2

Signs are growing that commercial real estate’s precarious hold on stability may be slipping. Since the start of the year, federal regulatory authorities have shut down nine banks – a whopping five alone last Friday in New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, Florida and Missouri.Commercial real-estate losses were responsible for a majority of the nine failures, according FDIC.Another grim metric: GE Capital posted a small profit last week – which would have been higher had the company not been dragged down with sour commercial real estate loans.Ever since the start of the crisis, there has been a race between the huge pile of debt coming due – debt that was underwritten against standards that will never fly in this market – and policy makers and industry representatives hastily putting together unprecedented rescue programs that might bridge the gap.While there was plenty of argument about the stimulus package and its effectiveness, rescue measures for the commercial real estate industry – namely TALF – have been deemed a success.Now the question is, as the number of failed banks grows – not to mention sour real estate loans – were these measures  enough to stem the rising flood that is clearly coming.