NU Online News Service, Sept. 23, 9:28 a.m.EDT

The California wildfire outside Los Angeles, which threatened12,000 homes, burned only 89 residences thanks to an absence ofstrong winds, AIR Worldwide, a catastrophe modeling firm said.

Boston-based AIR said the commercial and residential exposurevalue of the communities next to the southwestern perimeter of theStation Fire totals $17 billion according to the company's industryexposure database.

Had Santa Ana winds pushed the fire into these suburbanneighborhoods, losses likely would have beencatastrophic--comparable at least to the record Oakland Hills Fire,said AIR. The suspected arson fire is now almost totally containedafter more than three weeks of persistent firefighting efforts.

The Station Fire, which began on Aug. 26 near a U.S. ForestryService Ranger Station in the Angeles National Forest, to date hasconsumed over 250 square miles, making it the 10th largest blaze inCalifornia since 1933, AIR said.

The blaze, AIR noted, is believed to have been deliberately setand officials continue to search for those responsible.

Tomas Girnius, senior scientist at AIR Worldwide said, "Theprincipal mitigating circumstance that prevented the Station Firefrom destroying more homes was the moderate winds."

"Hourly reported sustained wind speeds near the fire rarelyexceeded 10 mph. Although there were a number of periods when windgusts exceeded 20 mph and even 30 mph, and these occurrences setback firefighting efforts and delayed the ultimate containment andcontrol of the fire, they were too infrequent to allow it to runcompletely out of control," he explained.

Mr. Girnius said had the infamous Santa Ana winds been present,the situation could have been far different. "Typically beginningin autumn, these hot and dry winds originate in the desert andsweep through southern California toward the coastline."

He noted that the 1991 the Oakland Hills Fire, the costliest inU.S. history with insured losses between $3billion and $3.5 billionin today's dollars, "was likewise fanned by Santa Ana-typewinds."

The steep and rugged terrain, inaccessible by ground vehicles inmany places, made Station Fire containment efforts very difficultsaid Mr. Girnius. "There was no precipitation during the fire andfuel moisture readings were as low as 4 and 5 percent on some days,and only occasionally greater than 10 percent. In the absence ofhigh winds, the very rapid spread of the fire can be attributed tothe extremely dry fuels.