In the wake of an active 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane season,Colorado State University Researchers (CSU) Philip Klotzbach andWilliam Gray have issued an official forecast for the impending2009 season. In their recent report, which was released earlierthis month, the forecasters at CSU's Department of AtmosphericScience anticipate a "somewhat above average" season without an ElNino event.

Klotzbach and Gray expect the formation of 14 named stormsduring the coming season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Halfof these weather events are likely to strengthen into hurricanes,with three predicted to be "intense" hurricanes. Storms classifiedas "intense" reach Category-3 status or higher on theSaffir-Simpson scale and sustain low-level winds of at least 111miles per hour.

In addition, the report mentioned a 63 percent probability thatat least one major hurricane will make landfall on the UnitedStates in the coming year.

The team developed and implemented a new statistical forecastmethodology for its early December prediction, which it employedfor the first time last year. "This was developed because of thefact that our real-time forecasts issued in early December from1992 to 2007 did not show skill in real time," Klotzbach and Graysaid. The team also stressed that the current report is preliminaryand is therefore subject to modification.

"No one can completely understand the full complexity of theatmosphere-ocean system," they said. "But, it is still possible todevelop a reliable statistical forecast scheme [that] incorporatesa number of the climate system's non-linear interactions.

"There is a large amount of uncertainty, especially with ourearly December prediction, issued seven months prior to the startof the hurricane season."

Forthcoming updated forecasts for 2009 activity will beavailable on April 7, June 2, August 4, September 2, and October 1,2009. A verification and discussion of all 2009 forecasts will beissued in late November 2009. The current report as well as pastforecasts can be found athttp://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts.

The official storm names for the 2009 North Atlantic tropicalcyclone season have been released:

AnaErikaIdaMindyRose Wanda

BillFredJoaquinNicholasSam

ClaudetteGraceKateOdetteTeresa

DannyHenriLarryPeterVictor

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml