Legislation introduced by Republicans in the Senate that wouldreduce the number of green cards would have the unintendedconsequence of expediting Social Security’s impending insolvency,according to new analysis from the Urban Institute.

The Reforming American Immigration for Strong Employment, orRAISE Act, would reduce the number of issued green cards by 41percent immediately, and gradually reduce the number until half areissued after 10 years. As is, about 1 million immigrants aregranted lawful status annually in the U.S.

The Institute's analysis says Social Security revenues would fall faster thanexpenditures under the policy, increasing unfunded obligations by13 percent, or $1.5 trillion, over the next 75 years.

The Social Security Administration is projecting its primarytrust fund will run out of reserve assets by2033, at which time all beneficiaries would see cuts in retirementbenefits of up to 25 percent.

Under the RAISE Act, most of the green card reductions would beachieved by cutting the number of visas issued to extended familymembers of immigrants with legal status.

It would maintain the existing 140,000 quota for work-basedvisas, but would create new preferences for younger andbetter-educated immigrants, according to the Institute's analysisof the proposed legislation. Visas for refugees and asylum seekerswould be limited, and a lottery that grants 50,000 green cardsrandomly would be eliminated.

“Because most newly arriving immigrants are working age and jointhe labor force, reducing immigration would shrink the labor forceand the number of workers paying payroll taxes, immediatelyreducing trust fund revenue,” according to the paper. “The numberof retirees and total benefits paid to them would not change in theshort run.”

Reducing the number of legal immigrants would also cut thenumber of Social Security recipients in the long run.

But the Institute says that reduction would not be enough tooffset lost revenue from fewer workers paying into Social Securityover time. Moreover, the think tank notes that cutting immigrationwould ultimately reduce the country’s overall birth rate, furthershrinking the labor force, and payroll tax receipts, over time.

The Institute's modeling shows the RAISE Act would reduce thelabor force by 2 million workers in 2030, 6 million in 2050, and by8 million in 2070. The labor force is expected to reach 176 millionby 2030.

Proponents of limiting green cards to higher-educated immigrantsargue the policy would be more productive for economic growth, asbetter-educated workers would earn more and pay higher taxes.

Under current policy, 20 to 30 percent of legal immigrants cometo the U.S. with a four-year degree. Under the RAISE Act, theInstitute says that would increase to 50 to 60 percent.

The new policy would boost the average earnings of legalimmigrants, offsetting some of the lost payroll tax revenue from asmaller workforce, the Institute says.

Social Security’s two trust funds are facing an $11.6 trilliondeficit over the next 75 years.

The $1.5 trillion in new deficits the Institute projects underthe RAISE Act would increase the new taxes needed to close SocialSecurity’s revenue gap. Were it to pass, the law would require anadditional increase of 0.44 percent in payroll taxes to close thedeficit, according to the Institute.