(Bloomberg) -- Hours after the U.S. government sued to block two major healthinsurance mergers, one deal appears headed for thecourthouse while the other could be headed to the graveyard.

Within minutes of the Justice Department filing its case infederal court, Aetna Inc. and Humana Inc. issued a joint statement,promising they’d fight in lockstep and “vigorously defend thecompanies’ pending merger.”

It’s the sort of statement that’s typical at the start of suchantitrust suits.

Yet Cigna Corp. seemed to use a related lawsuit also filedThursday as a potential escape from Anthem Inc.’s $48 billiontakeover of the company. Instead of a joint statement promising tofight, it quickly e-mailed its own comment to reporters,without Anthem, saying it didn’t know when a deal would close, “ifat all.”

“Cigna is saying, ‘We’d like to walk,’” Ana Gupte, an analyst atLeerink Partners, said by phone. “If there’s any opportunity for asettlement between Anthem and Cigna around the breakup fee andbeing able to walk away, they will try to do that.”

Anthem declined to comment on Cigna’s comments Thursday, otherthan to say it was ready to challenge the department. If thedeal falls apart under antitrust scrutiny, Cigna is owed a breakupfee of $1.85 billion, according to the companies’ agreement.

Deal drama

Thursday’s drama was the latest twist in one of the mostconsequential sets of deals in the U.S. health insurance industry.U.S. officials have said they want to block themergers to preserve competition, while the companiessay they need the transaction to control the cost of health careand push back against consolidating doctors and hospitals.

After Anthem first publicly approached Cigna in 2015, it wasrejected by the insurer partly over what role Cigna CEO DavidCordani would play at a combined firm.

Strife between the companies has spilled out into the open againin recent months. Ironically, dysfunction between the two may endup being good for Aetna and Humana, since a key part ofthe government’s argument against the deals has been that theywould shrink the five biggest players into three.

“If Cigna is terminated, then the notion of the five to threedisappears, and it also makes the DOJ’s court case moredifficult,” said Ira Gorsky, an analyst at Elevation LLC. Hesaid there’s little chance that Anthem and Cigna are able tocomplete their deal.

Humana shares rose 8.3 percent to $171.53 at the close in NewYork Thursday, while Aetna gained 1.6 percent to $118.30. Cigna wasup 5.4 percent to $140.32 and Anthem climbed 2.6 percent to$139.

A way forward?

Aetna is already trying to find a way forward despite U.S.officials’ skepticism of the deals. The Hartford, Connecticut-basedcompany is willing to offer up more divestitures to reach asettlement, CEO Mark Bertolini said in an interview Thursday. “Wecan settle tomorrow,” he said. “If there are more counties, we canput those on the table.”

Aetna and Humana may also be willing to play hardball, puttingtheir participation in Obamacare in play. The Justice Departmentsaid Thursday that part of its reasoning was to preservecompetition in the Affordable Care Act’s marketplaces forindividual insurance.

Less than an hour later, Humana put out a statement announcingit would no longer sell plans in eight of the 19 states where ithas been offering Obamacare plans. Humana CEO Bruce Broussard saidthe retreat was already in the works and not prompted by the DOJannouncement.

Money-losing exchanges

Bertolini said Aetna could re-evaluate its exchange presence aswell. “Should this create a balance-sheet problem for us, we’regoing to have to look at our competitive investments,” he said.

“The exchanges are a mess as they exist today,” Bertolini said.“They’re losing a lot of money for a lot of people.”

Outside the investment community, there’s less certainty thateither of the deals has an easy path.

Kathleen Sebelius, the former Obama administration Secretary ofHealth and Human Services, said in an interview she wasn’tsurprised to see the U.S. take action to block both deals. TheAffordable Care Act was designed to promote competition amonginsurers, and the deals would reduce options both on the Obamacareexchanges and for consumers in other markets, she said.

“The historic evidence in health insurance is that lesscompetition means higher rates and fewer choices.” she said. Whilethere’s still a chance the companies can get their deals through,it won’t be easy, Sebelius said. “This is a declaration that atleast there’s a long way to go, if these are ever going to beapproved,” Sebelius said.

Leemore Dafny, whose research has shown that a lack ofcompetition can raise the cost of health insurance, said that basedon the Department of Justice’s complaint, divestitures may not beenough. The companies should probably be considering whether towalk away, she said.

“I don’t think either of these parties are going to come up witha divestiture package that DOJ thinks would replace thecompetition,” said Dafny, a professor at Harvard Business School.“The possibility of a settlement is nonexistent.”

Related: 7 ways the Anthem-Cigna and Aetna-Humanadeals may chill policy

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