The U.S. government shutdown has thrown some key economic measures into the dark, forcing analysts to focus on alternative data to gauge the effects of a trade war and the pace of growth in recent weeks.
The Commerce Department, which houses the statistics-issuing Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is among the agencies—covering about 25 percent of government funding—that lack approved spending. That puts on hold the November international-trade data originally scheduled for release Tuesday morning in Washington, following the postponement of reports on factory orders, construction spending, and new home sales.
While the Labor Department is funded and its releases, such as last week's employment report, are proceeding as scheduled, analysts use the Commerce Department indicators to connect the dots on economic health. The partial shutdown is forcing analysts to get more creative, leaning more on reports such as business surveys and port-traffic data. It's not just economists: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said Monday that the lack of some data will likely hinder the central bank's decision-making.
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