Claims News Service, July 22, 11:14 a.m. EST — Tropical StormDolly, which as of 5 a.m. EST today was located in the Gulf ofMexico, about 295 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas, isforecasted to reach Category 1 hurricane status sometime tomorrowmorning.

“Tropical storm Dolly is currently heading towards the Gulf ofMexico, with maximum sustained winds of nearly 50 miles per hour(85 km/hr). Reports suggest that it will continue in a northwestdirection, making landfall in southern Texas or the northern gulfcoast of Mexico in the next few days,” said Neena Saith,catastrophe response manager at Risk Management Services (RMS).

“While most forecast models suggest favorable environmentalconditions for the storm to intensify over the Gulf of Mexico,there are wide discrepancies in its estimated strength, rangingfrom a weak tropical storm to a strong Category 1 hurricane. Abouthalf of the models suggest Dolly will reach hurricane status within48 hours, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is forecastingDolly to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, reaching its maximumintensity just before making landfall in northern Mexico in around72 hours,” continued Saith.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the coast of Texas fromBrownsville to Port O'Connor while a tropical storm warning is ineffect from north of Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass. The Mexicangovernment has also issued a hurricane warning from Rio SanFernando northwards to the US/Mexico border.

The NHC said Dolly could produce four-to-eight inches of rain inparts of south Texas and northern Mexico, with up to 15 inchespossible in some areas. The NHC also warned that Dolly could causecoastal storm-surge flooding of four-to-six feet above normallevels near and to the north of where the storm's center makeslandfall.

Texas Governor Rick Perry has activated 1,200 National Guardtroops and other emergency crews in anticipation of the storm'sarrival, but no mandatory evacuations have been ordered. Emergencyofficials said they were particularly concerned about the amount ofrain Dolly is forecasted to bring to flood-prone areas in theregion.

Offshore, reports said oil workers from rigs in the western Gulfof Mexico have been evacuated, but analysts said Dolly appearedlikely to pass south and west of the biggest concentration of U.S.platforms. The impact on production is expected to be limited.

More information and a map of the storm are available in GuyCarpenter's catastrophe information report. [PDF]

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