The commercial insurance market in general might be heading south,but the bottom hasnt fallen out yet, a survey of NationalUnderwriter readers reveals. Indeed, the market might still be alot more rational than people think.

Indeed, despite a general decline in prices, a significantpercentage of risk managers expect premiums to rise for selectedcoverage, and anticipate their overall insurance spending and riskretention levels to either remain unchanged or increase over thenext 12 months, the survey of 132 of NUs risk managementsubscribers found.

Although 39 percent of corporate insurance buyers anticipateoverall premium spending to drop between 1- and 10 percent, 12percent expect the status quo, while 38 percent believe insuranceoutlays will actually rise between 1- and 10 percent, according tothe survey, sponsored by Miller Insurance Services Ltd.–anindependent, specialist, wholesale insurance and reinsurance brokerbased in London, operating internationally as well as atLloyd's.

A small minority believe they face a sharp hike in overallpremium spendingwith 4 percent signaling a rise of 11-to-25percent, and 2 percent expecting more than a 25 percentincrease.

While the market might be softening overall, prices are notexpected to fall off a cliff anytime soon, with only 3 percent ofrisk managers surveyed indicating they anticipate overall insurancespending to drop between 11- and 25 percent. No buyer surveyedpredicted a spending decline deeper than 25 percent.

What do you folks make of all this? The findings certainlysurprised me. It indicates that while the market is softening, itis not irrational. Those with bad loss histories in certain linescould still see only modest rate cuts, if not hikes in someinstances. Or is it that risk managers are just being overallycautious with their estimates?

Over the course of the week, I'll examine other key findings ofthe survey.

If you want more information right now, click here for the full survey story. In addition, Miller has puttogether its own take on the survey, with many more results and farmore analysis offered. If you would like a copy, e-mail them [email protected].

Miller representatives will also be available to discuss thesurvey results in New Orleans at the Risk and Insurance ManagementSociety's annual conference from April 30-May 3. Miller will be atthe Lloyd's boothnumber 2320in the main exhibit area.