Heavily populated coastlines and another active hurricane seasonmake it vital for risk managers as well as local and federalgovernments to take every precaution and to be prepared, accordingto a national hurricane expert.

This season is expected to be "another very active hurricaneseason," with 13-to-16 named storms, including eight-to-10 that areexpected to become hurricanes, with four-to- six likely to beclassified as major events, warned Gerry Bell, lead developer ofthe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atlantichurricane outlook.

Mr. Bell revealed his predictions during a recent Marsh Internetseminar on "Preparing for the 2006 Hurricane Season."

During active seasons such as this one, two-to-four hurricanestypically strike the United States. The Atlantic has been activesince 1995, he said, adding that, historically, active hurricaneseasons have had alternating 25-to-40-year periods of increased anddecreased activity.

This means "we could expect to see ongoing high levels ofhurricane seasons and hurricane landfalls for another decade orlonger," he explained.

An indicator of an active season, he said, is storms that formin the "deep tropics between Africa and the Caribbean islands, aswe saw last year." Hurricanes normally don't form in these areasthis time of year, he noted. However, "if they do in June or July,this would indicate that conditions are already in place for anextremely active season," he added.

One bright spot, he noted, is that because of satellite shiftsand global weather measurements, NOAA is now able to monitor andpredict emerging climate patterns in a way that wasn't possible 10years ago. "As a result, we can now make highly confident seasonalhurricane outlooks, as we've been doing since 1998," he said.

Advance planning is more critical than ever because coastlineshave built up tremendously in the last 30 years. "The Census Bureauconsiders roughly 30 percent of Americans--more than 80 millionpeople--to be Gulf Coast, Atlantic Coast residents," meaning thatmore people are affected when a hurricane strikes, Mr. Bellsaid.

Many more areas have also been compromised because of damagefrom previous hurricane seasons, he noted.

Mr. Bell cautioned that individuals and businesses incompromised areas must realize they are at a greater risk of damageand injury should a hurricane strike again.