U.K. Scientists Claim 'Breakthrough' Hurricane Model

By Michael Ha

NU Online News Service, April 22, 3:32 p.m.EDT?A London-based research group has developed what itdescribes as a "major breakthrough" computer model that vastlyimproves the ability to forecast the strength of hurricane activitystriking the U.S. mainland.[@@]

The new forecasting model by Tropical Storm Risk, led by theBenfield Hazard Research Center at University College London, wasannounced in the science journal Nature.

According to Dr. Mark Saunders at University College London, whospearheaded the project, the answer to a better storm forecast?toborrow singer Bob Dylan's lyrics?is blowin in the wind.

Dr. Saunders said his model tracks anomalies in wind patternsover North America, the Eastern Pacific and North Atlantic in themonth of July to predict the potential wind energy of U.S.land-falling hurricanes for the August-to-October hurricaneseason.

He explained that wind anomalies change from year to year, andif the winds in July are pointing more toward North America, thenhurricanes formed in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf ofMexico tend to move toward North America more during the hurricaneseason.

Conversely, if winds blow less strongly toward North America inJuly, the opposite happens during the hurricane season: the stormstend to be stirred away from North America.

"As each North Atlantic hurricane season approaches, the commonquestion for those who own or insure property near the coast is:how likely is it that one or more hurricanes will make landfall,"he told National Underwriter. "This Tropical Storm Riskmodel is the first to offer a level of forecast precision to bepractically useful."

Dr. Saunders said that he had correctly predicted the unusuallyactive 2004 hurricane season using his technique. The model wasalso 74 percent accurate, when applied retrospectively to yearsbetween 1950 and 2003, on whether U.S. hurricane losses would behigher or lower than normal.

Using the new model, Dr. Saunders has forecast another activeAtlantic hurricane season in 2005, with four tropical storm strikespredicted for the United States, of which two will be hurricanes.Tropical Storm Risk will issue a more detailed forecast for theU.S. hurricane land-falling activity on Aug. 4.