Not too long ago, I asked three kids, ages 6-7, what they wantto be when they grow up. They told me: a football player, a doctorand a teacher. “Not one of you wants to be a benefits broker?” Iasked.

That earned me a befuddled look. Fittingly enough, I got thesame look when I posed that question to a friend considering acareer change. Just like it’s not a career kids dream about,neither is it the first consideration for recent graduates or thosecontemplating new jobs. And from the look of it, it’s not even acareer brokers dream about. In fact, for some brokers, the fieldhas turned into somewhat of a nightmare.

There’s the impossible uncertainty of the future, excessiveheath care costs, the collective glum disposition at brokerconferences held across the country, and the ever-present bigbrother watching in the wings, ready to snag their jobs. And ofcourse, concerns over how they will make their profits after newregulations go into effect. So what does this mean for the brokerbusiness?

Maybe it’s a chance for rebuilding, for a new generation ofbright-eyed, smart, capable young adults to dive in and embrace theunknown. Or maybe, what it is, is something to worry about.

When I grow up…
People don’t dream of becoming brokers; instead people turn out asbrokers. “I wanted to be a firefighter or an astronaut,” says JimHettenbach, director of market development at Unum. Most brokersagree insurance isn’t some sexy career people dream about.

And now, the majority of brokers face retirement. According to astudy from the Independent Agents & Brokers of America, theaverage age of an insurance industry professional is 54, with 60percent of insurance industry professionals being older than45.

“With the increasing number of retiring baby boomers, theindustry is faced with shortages, leaving ample opportunity foryoung professionals to fill the gaps,” says Tom Rivers, aninsurance industry recruitment specialist based in Vancouver.

“It’s likely there will be a shortage of brokers in the 2020s.People entering the field at this time will have time to developtheir expertise, build a block of business and seize theopportunities that will remain in the market,” says Alan Katz,principal of the Alan Katz Group and past president of the NationalAssociation of Health Underwriters.

But the question is: Will a new, younger generation of brokersemerge to take their place? “If I’m a young kid coming out ofschool—and I have young kids coming out of school—I think for themit’s the uncertainty around the compensation.

With a lot of broker jobs being 100 percent commission-based[and with commissions likely going away as part of health carereform], that’s tough to swallow if I’m comparing roles,” says BethNadeau, director of broker development at Unum.

And with headlines like “Uncertain future of health insurancebrokers” and “Health insurance brokers fight for their future”splashing news pages, the job of broker seems just about asappealing as becoming another one of Charlie Sheen’s goddesses.

A limited future?
Then there’s that tiny issue of health care reform, which may ormay not make brokers obsolete (according to whom you ask, ofcourse).

With health insurance exchanges being set up now through 2014,consumers easily will be able to compare the health insurancepolicies offered by different insurance companies. And since theinformation appearing in the exchanges will be regulated by thegovernment, they’re essentially taking on the role that brokershave now. Additionally, there’s cost-cutting to worry about.

As part of reform, health insurance companies are going to berequired to spend at least 80 percent of the money they get fromthe premiums they charge their customers on things that willactually provide medical care to those customers.

And there are very specific regulations that describe exactlywhat can, and cannot, be counted as something that providescustomers with medical or preventative care, meaning that insurancecompanies are going to have to find a way to cut some costs, ifthey want to continue to make the profits that they made inprevious years.

Perhaps the easiest, most-obvious cut? You guessedit—eliminating services provided by the insurance broker, so theydon’t have to pay out commissions anymore. No brokers mean nocommissions.

Not so fast
It’s not that simple, many brokers argue. To begin with, healthcare reform is causing all sorts of complaints and confusion frompeople on both sides of the political aisle, and all sides of thehealth industry. And it’s much too premature, and much toooptimistic, to assume the health care exchanges will be so flawlessand easy-to-read that brokers won’t be needed to explain them.

“If I were a broker, I would not despair at the prospect of thestate-based insurance exchanges for one simple reason:administrative simplicity and efficiency is decidedly not America’sstrong suit, in either the private or public health sectors,”Princeton economics professor Uwe Reinhardt wrote recently.

“So it’s a pretty safe bet that the state-based exchangesenvisaged in the Affordable Care Act will be so complicated andbewildering that the services of brokers will still be needed.” Andyet another provision of the Affordable Care Act —“coveragefact labels,” required by health insurance providers that aimto make understanding insurance plans simple for the consumer — isso confusing that it’s even baffling the drafters of thelabels.

The problem with selecting health care plans is there are toomany selections to make, too many options to choose from and toomany chances for risks in getting to the end result. “There’sbeen a huge comparison that these exchanges are going to be likeOrbitz,” Hettenbach says. “They say ‘Orbitz seems to do well,exchanges can do it well.’ The problem is if you have a badflight, you have a bad flight; you pick a bad health care plan thedownsides are a little more significant.”

Hence the broker to the rescue. “The world is becomingincreasingly complex. But the needs [of employees] don’t go away ascomplexity increases,” Hettenbach says. “They need the role of thebroker to craft the proper package and navigating that complexitymakes them more valuable and more central.” “Everyone in the healthcare system needs to constantly be providing value,” Katzexplains.

“Brokers who see their role as transactional — simply selling apiece of paper in exchange for a premium payment — shoulddefinitely be concerned. Computers and exchanges can fill this roleat a far lower cost. Brokers working to improve the financial andhealth security of their clients, those who provide ongoing serviceand focus on problem-solving have little to worry about.”

What it offers
And new professionals entering into the field might have thebiggest advantage of all. “There has never been a better timewithin our industry to do well,” Rivers says. “The shortage oftalented people has never been more evident in our business.

Individuals who are committed toward their education andprofessional work behavior can move up the ladder of successquickly.” But with a lack of information and relevant education onthe industry, those seldom young insurance professionals haven’thad a place to turn to for career advice and skill sets forsuccess, Rivers says.

This is where the role of mentorsshould come into play. “Business mentors have never been morecritical to the insurance industry as they are today,” he says.“Many steps can be taken by young or new insurance professionals toattract and maintain a mentorship relationship to theirbenefit.”

Hettenbach agrees. Change and evolution can make the insurancecareer more attractive and interesting than ever, but companiesneed to be proactive in making that point come across. “We need togo out and find those people and make them aware of theopportunities,” he says. “We need to continue to effectivelyrecruit and train them.”

Unum, like the other big carriers, has a broker connectionprogram that provides education and incentive for new brokers.Because the industry is in total flux right now, there’s potentialto do great — and likely history-changing — things in the business,experts say. “This will be a niche business. Brokers can take ondifferent sides of the business they might not have always donebefore. There may be more specialization on what they do now,”

Hettenbach says. But with any kind of change, there’s also thepotential for disaster. There’s the potential that the nextgeneration of brokers simply won’t exist like it does today.Really, what it comes down to is a wait-and-see game. “What you seenow is uncertainty and once you see certainty, you’ll see moreattractiveness.

I think going forward there is an opportunity to lay out, forthe right types of brokers, a good career,” Hettenbach says. “Butright now it’s in a period of transition and that transition andthat uncertainty is making it difficult for motivated people ingiving them an idea of what their future will look like.”